---

IMMIGRATION TO LEAD POPULATION IN THE WEST

---

Regional Immigration Problems Will Intensify

(By Haya El Nasser, October 23, 1996, USAToday). Immigrants will keep on fueling the explosive population growthin California and the rest of the West through the next century, accordingto a U.S. Census Bureau report out Tuesday.

And Texas' population will soar more than any other state between 1995 and2000, not just because of immigrants but because people will be flockingin from other states.

The population boom in the West and South indicate that states now grapplingwith overcrowding will face a monstrous problem in the future. It also showsthe powerful effect immigrants are having on the nation's demographic profile.

"By the year 2000, everyone in California will be a minority in theliteral sense of the word," says Peter Morrison, demographer at TheRand Corp., a think tank. "And that reflects what will happen in therest of the country decades from now. You will see cultural pluralism emergingin Iowa as well as California."

California, the nation's most populous state with 31.6 million people, willhave 17.7 million, or 56%, more people by 2025. The extra number of peopleprojected to live in California by then is almost equal to the populationof the entire state of New York Wednesday.

Eight million of the new Californians will be immigrants. They will makeup one-third of all new immigrants living in the U.S. by 2025. By then,half of the nation's Hispanics will be in the West.

University of Michigan demographer William Frey says the magnitude of thosenumbers in one state still shows that "immigration is not so much ofa national problem but a localized problem."

California demographer Mary Heim says the state actually expects to have4 million more people than the Census is projecting by 2005.

"They're assuming that California is going to be losing migrants toother states," she says. "But we're seeing a turnaround, and weactually expect to be gaining people from other states."

Texas will add 1.4 million people by 2000 - the biggest net gain of anystate - and 8.5 million by 2025.

The report projects the U.S. population will rise 4.5% to 274.6 millionbetween 1995 and 2000. Population will soar 27.5% to 335 million by 2025.

The District of Columbia is the only region projected to lose people by2000, a sign that the middle-class flight from the financially strappeddistrict will continue. The district will have 31,000 fewer people, a 5.6%drop from its 1995 population of 553,000. It will gain 17,000 people by2025.

"Most of it is because of a slowdown in people leaving the district,"says Paul Campbell, author of the projections. "It's not so much becauseof a rush back in."

For the first time, the Census Bureau is providing a detailed racial breakdownthat includes Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations of all races.


Among the highlights of the report:

• The non-Hispanic white population, now the largest, is projected togrow the slowest in the next 30 years.

• In 1995, states with the largest share of the nation's whites wereCalifornia, New York, Texas, Pennsylvania and Florida.

• By 2025, only Texas and Florida will see their share of the U.S. whitepopulation grow. People of Hispanic origin will account for 44%, or 32 millionof the 72 million additional people in the country.

• They're the second-fastest growing group in every region.

• The non-Hispanic black population will be the second-slowest groupin all regions except the South, where 64% of the 12 million additionalblacks will be living.

• The Asian population is the fastest growing in all regions. It willhave the fastest gains in the West and Northeast. By 2025, California isprojected to be home to 41% of the nation's 21 million Asians.